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Democrats can win every election every time.

It’s just basic numbers — elections are determined by turnout.

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I’ve seen a lot of updates from liberals over the weekend who seem to be preparing for the worst tomorrow because from their POV there’s no way to win some of these races.

Democrats can win any race if every eligible Democrat votes. It’s just basic numbers — elections are determined by turnout.

I looked at Mississippi from their Senate race in 2014 because I think that’s an example of a state that is reliably red every year but with a sizable Democratic population who probably feel like voting is a waste of time because their state is red, but it doesn’t have be.  I also picked Mississippi because it has one of the highest felony disenfranchisement rates in the country — almost 10% of the voting age population can’t vote because of a felony. (x) Since Black people make up the majority of prisoners, that’s another blow to the Democratic vote in Mississippi.

And it still doesn’t have to be a red state.

In 2014, there were 2,200,605 native-born Mississippians over the age of 18 (I didn’t count foreign-born because I couldn’t find stats for what percentage of them are citizens now). (x) At a 10% felony disenfranchisement rate, that’s 1,980,544 eligible voters.

Only 617,920 people voted in the 2014 Senate election, 59.9% (378,481) for the Republican and 37.9% (239,439) for the Democrat. (x)  If that same percentage carried over to nonvoters, that’s 516,434 Democratic votes that weren’t cast, for a total of 755,873 votes.

We can actually assume that Mississippi is more than 38% Democrat because they went 44% for Obama two years earlier and and because there are more registered Democrats than Republicans in every state in the South even though elections are regularly won by Republicans. (x)

Republicans are playing a lot of dirty tricks with this election, from disenfranchising Native Americans who only have a PO Box to throwing away registrations because of a signature to lying about early voting at the polls. There will be more tricks tomorrow, but you have to vote. This could very well be the last opportunity for Democrats to wrest power from the Republican party because they will do everything in their power to make sure we never get close again. They already win elections in states where there are more registered Democrats.

Compare this chart of states which require registration by party with the 2016 electoral map.

voter registration

electoral map

These are the states Trump won (with their electoral votes) where there are more registered Democrats than Republicans:

NC 15

KY 8

LA 8

FL 29

WV 5

PA 20

Clinton would have won if every registered Democrat had voted EVEN IF every registered Republican had as well.

There isn’t a single election up for grabs in this country that we can’t win if we overwhelm the tricks with sheer numbers. Republicans motivate with fear and anger.  So be more afraid and more angry than they are! Remember where we were two years ago and how fast the political landscape has devolved since then. We have two more years of that to look forward to if you don’t vote.

Be even more afraid — what do you think will happen in every race we lose tomorrow? Republicans will make it that much harder to win next time. Thanks to the Supreme Court, we lost the most important part of the VRA while Obama was President — what do you think happens to voting rights under Trump with both chambers of Congress and the Supreme Court on his side?

So be very afraid, but let that fear mobilize you and take a friend to the polls who never votes because they think their vote is pointless. Tell lazy young people that Democrats outnumber Republicans all over the country, even in red states, states that stay Red because their Republicans are angrier and more afraid than their Democrats, so they actually go to the polls. I’m safe here in New York. It’s easy for me to tell y’all down in Georgia or Florida or Texas to go vote because I live in NYC and we are reliably Blue. If I could vote for you, I would, but all I can do is give you the numbers and paint a picture with them. Show the picture to whoever needs to see it – none of your races are hopeless if everybody actually votes.

 

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Politics

Trump sues the Internet, because he needs money.

He’s filing a suit he can’t win so his cult will give him more cash.

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Donald Trump sued Twitter, Facebook, and Google yesterday because he misses being able to shit in America’s face whenever the mood strikes, and because he needs money.

Former President Donald Trump on Wednesday announced that he will lead a lawsuit over alleged censorship against Twitter, Facebook and Google – three tech companies that removed him from their platforms after the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol by a mob of his supporters.

The lawsuit will be a class-action, with Trump as the lead plaintiff, claiming that he’s been censored by the companies. He spoke about the legal action from his golf club in Bedminster, New Jersey.

“I stand before you this morning to announce a very important… development for our freedom and freedom of speech,” Trump said. “In conjunction with the America First Policy Institute, I’m filing, as the lead class-action representative, a major class-action lawsuit against the big tech giants, including Facebook, Google and Twitter, as well as their CEOs.”

(cont. Fox News)

Fox News is reporting this story to its viewers and readers the way it reports everything else: with half of the truth and a Conservative tilt that builds a false reality in the minds of its consumers. Trump is indeed filing suit and he does indeed feel that his First Amendment rights have been infringed upon, but if Fox News would just say plainly that these suits have zero chance of success, people would be less likely to send Trump money, which is all that orange bastard wants in the first place.

Donald Trump’s entire fundraising strategy is to present himself as a champion of white Conservatives who feel they’ve been silenced. They feel like he’s the only one who’s fighting for them, so they send him — a supposed billionaire in their eyes — money to fight liberals, to fight Democrats, to fight the legal establishment, to fight media elites. Fine, if you want to throw away your money so your champion has enough cash to fight the good fight, that’s your right.

Where’s the good fight though? These are lawsuits for show. They won’t be pursued because they have no chance of winning and Trump hates to lose. From a legal precedent, we just had a ruling on this exact same situation less than two weeks ago, and it was in Florida where Trump filed his lawsuit.

A federal judge on Wednesday blocked a Florida law that would penalize social media companies for blocking a politician’s posts, a blow to conservatives’ efforts to respond to Facebook and other websites’ suspension of former president Donald Trump. The law was due to go into effect Thursday, but in issuing a preliminary injunction, U.S. District Judge Robert Hinkle of the Northern District of Florida suggested that the law would be found unconstitutional.

(cont. WaPo)

Speaking of Florida, you can’t sue Facebook or Twitter from Florida. You have to sue them in California. I’m not a legal scholar and I don’t know why that is. I would suspect that a company would choose to set up shop in a state whose legal system was more likely to side with the company should an issue arise. If I’m a gun manufacturer, I’d rather be sued in Texas than in New York because my Texas judges will probably see it my way. Whatever the reasons, we all agree to file suit against Facebook and Twitter in California. When you sign up to use the platform, it says in the Terms of Service that any dispute you have must be filed in California.

It’s a done deal. Case closed, before it’s even open. Courts almost always uphold Terms of Service agreements unless there’s something egregiously illegal or unconstitutional in them, and specifying a jurisdiction in which to file a lawsuit is so commonplace, there’s no court that would even look twice at this filing from Florida. The Terms of Service agreement isn’t suddenly rendered invalid because you don’t like what you agreed to or you didn’t read it. It’s a legally binding contract that you agreed to, and if Trump wanted us to believe even for a second that he would pursue this lawsuit seriously, he would’ve at least bothered to file it in California. It’s so clearly Trump’s latest grift to wring money out of his cult, a way to keep his name trending, and another virtue-signaling tactic to his brainwashed followers that says, “hey…I’m still fighting for you guys.”

But he’s just fighting for his bank account.

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Dr. Jill Biden for Vogue

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First Lady Dr. Jill Biden covers Vogue this month and the accompanying write up is great.

I don’t feel like I know as much about her as I did about Michelle Obama, because the press were breathlessly reporting on every little Obama Tidbit, but Dr. Jill has firmly had me in her camp since I noticed how often she perfectly matches her gloves to her outfit.

This passage about the Navajo nation made me give her two snaps:

Dr. Biden’s trip to the Navajo Nation was, in fact, her third official visit to the tribal land—a fact that was lost on no one. (Business leader and Navajo advocate Clara Pratte says, “As someone who has worked in this field for a long time, I can tell you: This is not the norm. But it should be the norm.”) Dr. Biden’s last trip was two years ago, when she came to open “the very first cancer-treatment center on any American Indian reservation,” as the Navajo Nation’s first lady, Phefelia Nez, pointed out. Her husband, President Jonathan Nez, added that it was the Navajo Nation that helped put Biden over the top in Arizona, with “60, 70, even 80 percent turnout in some places.” There is a Navajo word, jooba’ii, that sounds like “Joe Biden” and means compassion, he said. “That’s how a lot of our elders remembered it at the polls.”

(cont.)

How about that. She’s the real deal.

Also: I love that this photo of Dr. Jill and her grandchildren from a couple of years ago pops up again. Annie Liebovitz did some good work here.

 

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WaPo: 21 House Republicans vote against awarding Congressional Gold Medal to all police officers who responded on Jan. 6

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Twenty-one House Republicans on Tuesday voted against awarding the Congressional Gold Medal to all police officers who responded to the Jan. 6 violent attack on the Capitol by a pro-Trump mob.

The measure passed the House with overwhelming bipartisan support from 406 lawmakers. But the 21 Republicans who voted “no” drew immediate condemnation from some of their colleagues, and the vote underscored the lingering tensions in Congress amid efforts by some GOP lawmakers to whitewash the events of that day.

(cont.)

Imagine facing down an angry mob and putting your life on the line for a group of people who largely look past you day to day, and then having those people say “oh it wasn’t that bad” and refuse to give you recognition.

The way I would CUSS them out to their FACE. The GOP has no floor. Their party is in hell.

 

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