I’ve seen a lot of updates from liberals over the weekend who seem to be preparing for the worst tomorrow because from their POV there’s no way to win some of these races.
Democrats can win any race if every eligible Democrat votes. It’s just basic numbers — elections are determined by turnout.
I looked at Mississippi from their Senate race in 2014 because I think that’s an example of a state that is reliably red every year but with a sizable Democratic population who probably feel like voting is a waste of time because their state is red, but it doesn’t have be. I also picked Mississippi because it has one of the highest felony disenfranchisement rates in the country — almost 10% of the voting age population can’t vote because of a felony. (x) Since Black people make up the majority of prisoners, that’s another blow to the Democratic vote in Mississippi.
And it still doesn’t have to be a red state.
In 2014, there were 2,200,605 native-born Mississippians over the age of 18 (I didn’t count foreign-born because I couldn’t find stats for what percentage of them are citizens now). (x) At a 10% felony disenfranchisement rate, that’s 1,980,544 eligible voters.
Only 617,920 people voted in the 2014 Senate election, 59.9% (378,481) for the Republican and 37.9% (239,439) for the Democrat. (x) If that same percentage carried over to nonvoters, that’s 516,434 Democratic votes that weren’t cast, for a total of 755,873 votes.
We can actually assume that Mississippi is more than 38% Democrat because they went 44% for Obama two years earlier and and because there are more registered Democrats than Republicans in every state in the South even though elections are regularly won by Republicans. (x)
Republicans are playing a lot of dirty tricks with this election, from disenfranchising Native Americans who only have a PO Box to throwing away registrations because of a signature to lying about early voting at the polls. There will be more tricks tomorrow, but you have to vote. This could very well be the last opportunity for Democrats to wrest power from the Republican party because they will do everything in their power to make sure we never get close again. They already win elections in states where there are more registered Democrats.
Compare this chart of states which require registration by party with the 2016 electoral map.
These are the states Trump won (with their electoral votes) where there are more registered Democrats than Republicans:
Clinton would have won if every registered Democrat had voted EVEN IF every registered Republican had as well.
There isn’t a single election up for grabs in this country that we can’t win if we overwhelm the tricks with sheer numbers. Republicans motivate with fear and anger. So be more afraid and more angry than they are! Remember where we were two years ago and how fast the political landscape has devolved since then. We have two more years of that to look forward to if you don’t vote.
Be even more afraid — what do you think will happen in every race we lose tomorrow? Republicans will make it that much harder to win next time. Thanks to the Supreme Court, we lost the most important part of the VRA while Obama was President — what do you think happens to voting rights under Trump with both chambers of Congress and the Supreme Court on his side?
So be very afraid, but let that fear mobilize you and take a friend to the polls who never votes because they think their vote is pointless. Tell lazy young people that Democrats outnumber Republicans all over the country, even in red states, states that stay Red because their Republicans are angrier and more afraid than their Democrats, so they actually go to the polls. I’m safe here in New York. It’s easy for me to tell y’all down in Georgia or Florida or Texas to go vote because I live in NYC and we are reliably Blue. If I could vote for you, I would, but all I can do is give you the numbers and paint a picture with them. Show the picture to whoever needs to see it – none of your races are hopeless if everybody actually votes.
GOP lawmakers don’t want metal detectors at the Capitol.
People broke into your job with weapons, but you don’t want metal detectors?
Louie Gohmert just walked around the magnetometer.— Matt Fuller (@MEPFuller) January 13, 2021
“You can’t stop me; I’m on my way to a vote,” he said as he passed the cops.
For members of Congress to enter the floor of the U.S. House, we now have to go through intense security measures, on top of the security we already go through. These new provisions include searches and being wanded like criminals. We now live in Pelosi’s communist America!— Congresswoman Debbie Lesko (@RepDLesko) January 13, 2021
Rep. Steve Scalise, the No. 2 Republican, told me that the situation is “untenable” because it “impedes the ability of members to come and vote. This is our job.” These are the lines pic.twitter.com/Z6WP9ZXmC0— Manu Raju (@mkraju) January 13, 2021
Rep. Rodney Davis told Mullin not to shout at Capitol Police, and he said: “This is not their fault, they’re doing their job.”— Manu Raju (@mkraju) January 13, 2021
But Davis, who is the top Republican on House Admin, told me: “I’m pissed” that the mags have gone up without any consultation.
Republicans don’t believe the election was “free and fair”
In that case, I hope they just stop voting.
Three days after every major media outlet called the election for former Vice President Joe Biden, President Donald Trump has shown no signs of conceding as he continues to push baseless claims of widespread fraud. The campaign he is waging against the integrity of the election, which first took root months ago, has had a major impact on how Republicans perceive the results, according to new Morning Consult polling.
This latest survey, conducted Nov. 6-9, 2020 among 1,987 registered voters nationwide, is part of an ongoing research project to gauge the level of trust Americans have in their electoral system. Results will be updated on this page weekly.
(cont. Morning Consult)
This was absolutely the goal of the Trump administration from the start. The writing was on the wall — he was going to lose this election bigly and he needed to make his supporters doubt the results, so they all cast a shadow on mail-in votes. They knew the largest share of mail-in votes would be Democrats because Democrats have not rejected COVID science and are more likely to avoid crowds. Sending in your ballot from the safety of your home makes sense to someone who believes the coronavirus pandemic is a real thing. Then the GOP prevented those ballots from being counted until after all of the same day ballots in places like Pennsylvania, so Trump declared victory on the day, and his supporters watched it slip away as these sketchy mail-in ballots were counted.
That’s the one-two punch. Mail-in ballots have more fraud, and I won before the fraudulent ballots started being counted.
So now we have an entire political party undermining the foundation of our democracy, by following behind this orange baby man throwing a tantrum because he hates losing, and they’re all but ensuring lower turnout for the next election cycle among their base. If 7 out of 10 people on your side of the aisle believe the election is rigged, how many of them are going to sit out next time because their vote doesn’t matter anyway? If just 1 of every ten says “why waste the time?” the GOP loses by an even wider margin.
Fine with me! I especially hope Republicans in Georgia have lost faith in the voting process so they don’t turn out for the Senate runoffs in a few weeks. I know plenty of Lazy Liberals who’ve sat on the couch on election day because we keep seeing these races stolen from us due to gerrymandering and voter restrictions and polling site closures. A big chunk of us have said “why waste the time?” and it has cost us every time. A little pessimism on the other side is music to my ears.
Also, it’s important to note that whichever party loses the White House has less trust in the election. It happens every time. Strangely enough, the only recent election where faith in the election was about equal for Democrats and Republicans was Bush v. Gore back in 2000, where the election hinged on less than 600 votes in Florida (as opposed to tens of thousands of votes in multiple states for Biden this go ’round).
This is the share of voters who said the election was free and fair, going back to Bush vs. Clinton.
It’s interesting that the trust gap of the 90s doubled once Barack Obama was elected, and it has doubled again now that the sitting President has spent the past few days telling his base over and over that the results weren’t fair. The Republican Party is circling the drain and I would love for this distrust in the voting process to be the final nail in their coffin. They can’t win if they don’t even show up.
Donald Trump’s ego would love nothing more than to see his supporters rise up and fight for him, so he will fan the flames for as long as they will believe his lies. I can’t think of a bigger indictment of his fabrications than Fox News refusing to give them more airtime:
Fox News has left the chat. pic.twitter.com/SwW9cq9bJI— The Recount (@therecount) November 9, 2020
I guess Rusty and Carole will have to get all their conspiracy theories straight from the source now.
2020 Election Firsts
The last four years have been hard, and these “firsts” show that we are in fact still moving in the right direction.
You know where this is going to end up (but not for the reason you think!) and I just wanted to highlight some other “firsts” from last week’s election. On the one hand, it’s 2020, so having “the first” of anything when it comes to representation is tiring. On the other hand, it’s 2020, and the last four years have been hard, and these “firsts” show that we are in fact still moving in the right direction.
Oklahoma has never had a Muslim elected to their State Legislature. The US has never had a non-binary person elected to any State Legislature. Until Mauree Turner.
Being a queer Black Muslim activist in Oklahoma comes with a lot of hurdles just to be seen and heard, but during the course of their activism and organizing behind other politicians, Turner was being encouraged to just run for office themself. They ran on a platform of inclusion and defeated their challenger with 71% of the vote.
If at first you don’t succeed, keep at it until you do. That’s what Cori Bush did.
Cori Bush ran for Senate in 2016, but was defeated in the primary. She ran for the House in Missouri’s 1st Congressional District (St. Louis mostly) in 2018, but was defeated in the primary. When she ran again this year and upset incumbent Lacy Clay in the primary, it ended the Clay Family’s hold on that seat which began with Lacy’s father Bill Clay back in 1968. Bush got her start in politics after the Ferguson protests where she served as a triage nurse and organizer. With her win in the general, she’s the first Black Woman elected to Congress from Missouri.
In 2012, Sarah McBride became the first openly trans woman to work in the White House. In 2016, she addressed the Democratic National Convention, becoming the first transgender American to address a major political party. Now, she has another first.
After winning her State Senate race in Delaware, Sarah McBride is the first trans person elected to a state Senate in the US. As a campaign staffer in Delaware, McBride previously worked on Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden’s campaign before coming out as trans during her last week as student body president of American University. A flurry of media coverage followed and the Biden Family continued to express their support, culminating in a position at the White House Office of Public Engagement and Intergovernmental Affairs.
Mondaire Jones won his House race to become the first openly gay Black Congressman.
Jones was running in a solidly Democratic district just north of NYC without a strong challenger in the primary. He easily pulled ahead of his challengers back in June during the primary for a seat that had been held by the same woman for thirty years. Jones has the support of Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, but I’m most excited to see him working with another of his high-profile supporters — AOC.
Another openly gay first, this time the first openly gay Afro-Latino in Congress.
Ritchie Torres will also be representing New York alongside Mondaire Jones when Congress seats its new class. His primary challenger was a notorious homophobe by the name of Rubén Díaz Senior, not to be confused with his more popular and more liberal son, Rubén Díaz Junior, who is the Bronx borough president. The ballots during that primary didn’t specify Junior or Senior, which I’m sure was an intentional “oversight” by the father’s campaign to capitalize on his son’s popularity, but in the end, Torres pulled it off and defeated his Republican challenger in the general last week. Torres said during his campaign that he wants to tackle the affordable housing crisis, expand the Supreme Court, and make Puerto Rico a state. He’s got big dreams and a bright future.
Madame Vice-President Elect will be the first female Vice President, the first Black VP, and the first Asian VP.**
There’s not much to add that hasn’t already been breathlessly covered everywhere for the past few days, but! She’s also the first Vice President who doesn’t share a last name with their spouse, which hadn’t occurred to me until last night, but I think it’s really awesome!
Full Disclosure: I hate when women feel pressured to change their last names after they get married, but I especially hate it when they have a career. You have papers and interviews and titles associated with one name, so why change that because of an outdated tradition that stems from ownership? Kamala Harris married Douglas Emhoff, and she’s still Kamala Harris. I was watching a documentary about Hillary Clinton before the 2016 election and it bummed me out that she felt she had no choice but to change her last name when Bill lost his reelection for Arkansas governor. She had kept her name and her job and she was too “independent” as a Southern wife, so she changed herself to help her husband appeal to voters, and that included taking Clinton as her last name. Forty years after that, I’m really excited that a woman has finally gotten to the White House and she kept hers.
**Kamala Harris is the first woman of color, but she’s not the first non-white VP. Hoover’s Vice President Charles Curtis was 3/8ths Native American.
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